Trying to raise my kids the best I can

Thursday, August 04, 2005

My worst fear for world destruction realized?

What is my worst fear for world destruction? It is a pandemic flu that wipes out millions of people, similar to the flu of 1918. That flu had a death rate of about 3%. It traveled the world three times and killed 50-100 million people.

There has been a discovery of a flu virus transmitted from bird to human with a death rate of 55%. It is unusual for a flu to transmit from bird to human. Usually it goes through other animals first (pigs, horses). If this virus mutates to a more contagious form that can be transmitted from human to human, it will be unstoppable.
The question is, when it mutates to the more contagious form, how much of it's "deadliness" will it sacrifice? Will it sacrifice 100 fold? That would mean a death rate of only .5%. But that is a huge sacrifice. What if it only sacrifices 50% of it's morbity rate? Then we're talking about a death rate of 25%. Think about that. A pandemic flu raging the Earth, in the age of world travel (as opposed to the flu of 1918), and if you get the flu, you have a one in four chance of dying. (There aren't nearly enough vaccines to go around). I'm not trying to be an alarmist. The Bible says to trust in God in all things. We Christians are instructed not to worry. So my purpose in blogging this isn't to scare, only to raise awareness.

Worst case scenario, the mutation occurs, millions die, economies temporarily collapse. What's my plan? Well, first of all I'd probably go back to homeschooling right away. I assume everyone would wear face masks everywhere. And the minute this baby mutates I'm SO stocking up on beans and rice. Believe me, I've never stocked up on anything before. I don't worry about terrorism, I didn't worry about Y2K. I'm not a paranoid person. But, like I said, this is my one fear for world destruction. This is the one thing I really think could happen.

If it does, we'll deal with it. I'll still have my faith in God. I'm not "afraid", but I am watching this issue closely. If I were a policy maker I would be dealing with it more forthrightly, for instance guaranteeing the purchase of vaccines so that there wouldn't be shortages. Also, better funding for the CDC. But I'm not a policy maker.


  • At 11:01 AM, Blogger Bruce said…

    I've been reading your blogs in backwards order from 8/31. I got to this one and thought, my, my, that young lady has too much time on her hands.

    A quote from a song I like, especially appropriate with the weather on the gulf coast:

    ...You talk about security,
    Y'know there aint no such thing.
    You got your earthquakes, jail breaks, foreign competition, got your runaway subway trains...
    (Mark Heard, "Shaky Situation")


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